Mateos Pushes Back on Negreanu Over High Roller Poker Profit
Adrian Mateos disputes Daniel Negreanu's claim that few players profit on the high roller poker circuit, citing ROI and Chidwick's numbers.
Adrian Mateos has rejected Daniel Negreanu's claim that almost nobody profits on the high roller poker circuit. Speaking to Winamax, Mateos called Negreanu's take uninformed and said elite players can post ROIs far above what Negreanu described. Poker.org reports the exchange reignited a debate Negreanu started in April 2025.
- Negreanu said in April 2025 that players needed $12 million in cashes to profit across Triton, WSOP and other high rollers.
- Only three players cashed for $12 million or more in 2024, according to Negreanu's original post.
- Mateos told Winamax that few players spend more than $10 million a year in buy-ins.
- Stephen Chidwick estimated his true profit at $5-10 million from $76 million in career earnings.
- Mateos said elite players can reach ROIs of 20-30%, well above the average regular.
What did Negreanu say about high roller poker?
In April 2025, Daniel Negreanu argued on social media that the high roller poker circuit looks more profitable than it actually is. He said that playing a full schedule across Triton, WSOP and other major stops would require eight-figure buy-in spending just to break even.
Negreanu claimed only three players cleared $12 million in cashes during 2024, a bar he called nearly impossible for most competitors to reach. He concluded that the glamour of the highest stakes is 'mostly a mirage' for the vast majority who attempt it.
He went further, suggesting that players chasing a 'good living' in tournaments were better off sticking to low and mid stakes events. The implication, according to Poker.org, was that those fields offer steadier and more realistic returns than the super high roller circuit.
Why does Mateos disagree?
According to Poker.org, Adrian Mateos addressed the comments directly in a recent Winamax interview. He said Negreanu's view comes from someone who doesn't fully understand the circuit he's describing, despite his stature in the game.
Mateos called Negreanu poker's most important ambassador and credited him as one of the people who has done the most for the sport. But he said that on this particular claim, Negreanu was simply wrong.
He argued Negreanu rarely travels outside the United States and doesn't track the real numbers behind high stakes play. Mateos said players who spend $10 million or more a year in buy-ins are rare outliers, not the norm Negreanu implied in his original post.
How much do top players really profit?
Mateos described poker as a pyramid-shaped game, where most of the available money sits at the very top. He said his own strategy has always been climbing toward that summit rather than avoiding the toughest, highest-stakes fields.
He added that profits grow exponentially for elite players, even as competition gets fiercer near the top. Mateos estimated that top players can post ROIs of 20 to 30 percent, compared to far thinner margins for an average regular grinding the same events.
Mateos also pointed to Stephen Chidwick's own public numbers as a useful example. Chidwick estimated true profit of $5 to 10 million from $76 million in career tournament earnings, after accounting for buy-ins and travel.
Mateos said he believed those figures were accurate, and praised Chidwick for being transparent about the real economics behind big cashes. He said that kind of honesty helps clear up misconceptions that headline numbers alone tend to create.
What does this mean for the wider debate?
Pokerfuse reports the exchange has drawn attention because both men speak from very different vantage points inside the game. Negreanu built much of his reputation and bankroll in North American poker, while Mateos competes regularly on the global super high roller trail.
The disagreement highlights how hard it is to generalize about profitability at the highest stakes. Buy-in totals, travel schedules, and individual skill all shift the real return, even among players entering the very same tournaments.
It also shows how publicly poker's top pros now debate money questions that used to stay private. Figures like Chidwick's profit breakdown, and now Mateos' rebuttal, give fans a rare look at the real math behind big career numbers.
What it means for players
For anyone following high stakes poker, this debate is a reminder that headline cashes rarely tell the whole story. Buy-ins, travel and variance eat into profit long before a player's final numbers hit a leaderboard, no matter how impressive the total looks. Readers building their own game can study similar math on a smaller scale using tools like the bankroll guide and the pot odds calculator to see how edges and costs actually interact in real decisions.
Frequently asked
What did Daniel Negreanu originally claim about high roller poker?
In April 2025, Negreanu said players needed to cash for $12 million or more to profit across major high roller tours. He noted only three players hit that mark in 2024 and called the perceived profitability of high stakes poker a mirage.
Why does Adrian Mateos think Negreanu is wrong?
Mateos told Winamax that Negreanu's view is based on incomplete knowledge of the circuit. He said few players actually spend $10 million or more a year in buy-ins, making Negreanu's benchmark misleading for most competitors.
What did Stephen Chidwick reveal about his own profits?
Chidwick estimated his true profit at $5 to 10 million from $76 million in career tournament earnings. Mateos said he believed those numbers were accurate and called Chidwick's honesty valuable for the wider debate.